S&P Global has warned that Dubai apartment prices could face further pressure. I think the real estate industry needs to talk about it openly, because the buyers we advise are already asking.
On 7 October 2026, S&P Global Ratings published its assessment of the Dubai residential market. It flagged two concerns: regional uncertainty and a rising supply of new property.
What S&P Global said about Dubai property
- Supply: Dubai’s residential stock could grow by about 20% through 2028, with apartments making up a large share, according to Khaleej Times and Arabian Post.
- Transactions: monthly sales averaged 12,644 from March to September 2026, against 17,198 in January and February. That is a fall of about 26%. S&P based these figures on Dubai Land Department data.
- Prices: some segments fell 5 to 15% between the end of 2025 and September 2026, based on industry estimates S&P reviewed.
- The risk ahead: new deliveries in 2027 and 2028 could put more pressure on investor driven apartments.
S&P credit analyst Sapna Jagtiani said the base case is that “the Middle East disruptions will continue into 2027”, and that new deliveries could speed up the correction, particularly in apartments bought mainly by investors. She also said prices could stabilise despite the extra supply if geopolitical risk eases, as reported by Zawya.
The wider numbers point the same way. Cavendish Maxwell counted AED 72.6 billion of residential sales across about 34,000 deals in the third quarter of 2026. That is 47% lower by value and 38% lower by volume than a year earlier, as The National reported.
Is the Dubai property market collapsing?
No. But that does not mean every property bought today will rise in value.
This is where we, as real estate professionals, need to be more responsible. For years Dubai has attracted investors with strong infrastructure, economic growth, global connectivity and an ambitious plan for the future. Those fundamentals matter. They do not mean an investor can ignore supply, price, rental yield or the market cycle.
- An apartment bought at AED 2,000 per sq ft does not become a good investment because a developer launches the next project at AED 2,500.
- A 1% monthly payment plan does not make a property affordable.
- A projected return is not the same as an actual return.
Dubai is not one property market
Different communities, developers, property types and price segments can perform very differently. Some projects will compete with a wave of new supply. Others benefit from finished infrastructure, limited availability and real end user demand.
Registered prices show why this matters. In 18 of 19 communities with enough sales to compare, buyers paid more per sq ft for off plan units than for ready ones. A premium is only worth paying if the finished property can hold it once the next projects deliver.
| Community | Ready, median per sq ft | Off plan, median per sq ft | Off plan above ready |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Village Circle | AED 1,244 | AED 1,532 | 23% |
| Business Bay | AED 1,771 | AED 2,467 | 39% |
| MBR City | AED 2,081 | AED 2,440 | 17% |
| Arjan | AED 1,377 | AED 1,616 | 17% |
| Dubai Sports City | AED 946 | AED 1,393 | 47% |
| Dubai Hills Estate | AED 2,217 | AED 2,442 | 10% |
What a responsible adviser tells you now
At Cresco Real Estate I have always believed a long term relationship matters more than selling someone a property today. Sometimes the right advice is to buy. Sometimes it is to negotiate harder. And sometimes it is to wait.
Before you buy in 2026, ask:
- How many units will be handed over in this community in 2027 and 2028?
- What do the latest registered sales say, compared with the asking price?
- What is the net yield after service charges, vacancy and fees, not the gross figure?
- What does the payment plan cost in total, and when do the large payments fall?
- Who will buy this property from you in five years, and at what price per sq ft?
A market correction does not destroy opportunity. It changes where the opportunity is.
My question to investors, developers and fellow professionals
With more residential supply expected in Dubai in 2027 and 2028, do you believe population growth and end user demand will be enough to absorb it?
And if you were investing AED 2 million today, would you choose an off plan apartment, a ready property, or hold your cash for another 12 months? I would like to hear different perspectives. If you want a view on a specific community, speak to our team.
Frequently asked questions
Are Dubai property prices falling in 2026?
Some segments are. Industry estimates reviewed by S&P Global show falls of 5 to 15% in certain segments between the end of 2025 and September 2026. The fall is uneven, and S&P describes the correction as moderate so far.
How much new housing supply is coming to Dubai?
S&P Global estimates Dubai’s residential stock could grow by about 20% through 2028 if scheduled projects deliver on time, with apartments making up a large share.
Is it a good time to buy an apartment in Dubai?
It depends on the community, the price per sq ft against registered sales and the supply due nearby. Ready property in established communities and off plan apartments in areas with heavy 2027 and 2028 deliveries carry very different risks.
Sources: Khaleej Times, 7 Oct 2026; Zawya via TradingView, 8 Oct 2026; Arabian Post; The National, 7 Oct 2026; Dubai Land Department open data via the Cresco Dubai Property Price Index. This article is market commentary, not investment advice.