Dubai registered 10,108 home sales worth AED 21.3 billion in September 2026. That is 51 percent less value than September 2025 and 47 percent fewer transactions. It is the clearest month yet of a correction that began in March.
Emaar sold AED 4.1 billion of that across 1,021 deals and its market share rose for the third month running. Both facts are true. The Emaar infographic doing the rounds this week only tells you the second one. This page tells you both, with the Dubai Land Department numbers behind each.
September 2026 in numbers
- Home sales registered 10,108
- Total value AED 21.3 billion
- Versus September 2025 transactions down 46.9 percent, value down 51.3 percent
- Versus August 2026 transactions down 9.5 percent, value down 2.0 percent
- Off plan 6,960 homes, AED 12.27 billion, 68.9 percent of registrations
- Ready homes 3,148 homes, AED 9.04 billion
- Median price per sq ft AED 1,639
- Median registered price AED 1.28 million
- Busiest areas by count Dubai South 842, Jumeirah Village Circle 784, Majan 523
- Largest projects by value Valia AED 725 million across 263 homes, Azizi Venice AED 374 million across 454 homes
Source: Dubai Land Department home sale registrations as analysed by Projectory, data as at 2 October 2026. Plots and whole buildings are excluded from these figures.
The quarter and the year so far
September closed the weakest quarter Dubai has posted in several years.
- Q3 2026 about 34,000 transactions worth AED 72.6 billion, down 38 percent in volume and 47 percent in value year on year
- First nine months of 2026 112,580 transactions worth AED 292 billion, down 23 percent in volume and 27 percent in value
- Monthly run rate an average of 12,644 sales a month from March to September against 17,198 a month in January and February, a 26 percent drop
Those figures come from Cavendish Maxwell’s third quarter report and from S&P Global Ratings citing Dubai Land Department data, both reported by The National on 7 October 2026.
Why the market turned
Two things happened at once and it is important not to confuse them.
The first is regional. Buyer activity became more measured after the conflict in the region began in late February 2026. Cavendish Maxwell’s Ronan Arthur describes purchasing as having become “more measured” rather than having stopped. The January and February run rate of over 17,000 sales a month was the last of the old market. Everything since March is the new one.
The second is mechanical. Dubai registrations lag the actual sale, sometimes by months. Part of the year on year drop in Q3 is simply the tail of 2025’s record registrations clearing out of the comparison. That does not make the correction less real. It does mean the headline percentage overstates it a little.
On prices, S&P Global cites industry reports putting the decline at 5 to 15 percent between the end of 2025 and September 2026. Emaar’s own founder Mohamed Alabbar has put it at 5 to 10 percent for the wider sector. S&P expects a gradual correction rather than a sharp fall, with apartment prices softening faster than villas because of the apartment supply pipeline.
The number inside the number. Ready sales rose 40 percent.
This is the detail most reports skip and it matters more than the headline.
In September, off plan value fell 19.8 percent against August. Ready home value rose 40.3 percent against August. The whole market was down 2 percent on the month, but the mix inside it flipped hard toward finished property.
S&P predicted exactly this. As prices soften, investors who bought in 2023 and 2024 start to sell, which pushes volume into the secondary market. Secondary sales become more common precisely because the market is correcting. A rising secondary share is not a sign of health on its own. It is a sign that owners are choosing to exit.
Keep that in mind when you read the next section.
What Emaar’s September looked like
Emaar’s own summary of September, which it attributes to Dubai Land Department, Property Monitor and web sources, gives the following.
- Total sales of AED 4.1 billion across 1,021 deals
- AED 1.18 billion primary, AED 2.96 billion secondary
- 27 percent of all secondary sales value in Dubai
- 36 deals above AED 10 million
- Average AED 2,268 per sq ft against a Dubai average of AED 1,818
- Market share up from 13 percent in June to 18 percent in September, the third monthly rise in a row
- Dubai Creek Harbour AED 1.09 billion, Dubai Hills Estate AED 0.88 billion, Downtown Dubai AED 0.37 billion, The Valley AED 0.22 billion, Arabian Ranches AED 0.19 billion
We checked the share claim against the DLD figures above. AED 4.1 billion against AED 21.3 billion of home sales is 19 percent, which sits comfortably with Emaar’s 18 percent once you allow for the plots and buildings Emaar’s denominator includes and ours does not. The number holds.
What the infographic leaves out
Emaar’s share went from 13 percent to 18 percent in three months. Read on its own that sounds like growth. Read against the market it is something different.
Dubai’s monthly sales value is roughly half what it was a year ago. Emaar’s share of that smaller pie went up. The most likely explanation is not that Emaar found new buyers. It is that buyers who were still buying moved toward the developer with the longest delivery record, the deepest balance sheet and the most liquid resale market. In a nervous market, money consolidates into the safest name. That is what a rising share in a falling market usually means.
Two more things worth noticing.
Nearly three quarters of Emaar’s September was secondary. AED 2.96 billion of AED 4.1 billion. Emaar is number one in secondary partly because Emaar owners are selling, which is the S&P pattern described above. Dubai Hills Estate being the top secondary community in the city is a measure of how much ready Emaar stock changed hands, not only of how desirable it is.
The price premium is holding. AED 2,268 per sq ft against the Dubai average of AED 1,818, and against a DLD median of AED 1,639. A 25 percent premium that survives a correction is the strongest line on the whole graphic, and it is the one Emaar put in the smallest type.
What this means if you are buying now
We will be direct, because that is what you are here for.
Prices are lower than they were at the start of the year. Somewhere between 5 and 15 percent depending on the segment and the source. If you were priced out in January, you are closer now.
Ready stock is where the movement is. With secondary value up 40 percent on the month, there is more finished property on the market and more sellers who want to close. That is where negotiation room exists today. Off plan launches are still coming but the registration data says buyers are choosing to see the building first.
Quality is being repriced less than quantity. The Emaar premium holding at 25 percent tells you the correction is hitting the thin end of the market harder than the established end. If you are buying for the long term, this is a period when the gap between a strong developer and a weak one shows up in price, and it is worth paying it.
Apartments before villas. S&P’s read is that apartment prices will soften faster than villa prices because of what is in the pipeline. If you want an apartment, waiting is defensible. If you want a villa in an established community, the supply argument for waiting is weaker.
What this means if you own
If you bought in 2023 or 2024 and you are watching the secondary surge, you are not alone and that is the point. A lot of owners are exiting at once, which is why ready value jumped 40 percent in a single month. Selling into that crowd means competing on price. If you do not need to sell, the data argues for holding through a correction that S&P itself calls gradual. If you do need to sell, Emaar and established community stock is moving faster and holding its price better than the rest.
Cresco’s read
September confirmed a market that has reset, not a market that has broken. Volumes are back to roughly 2023 levels. Prices are off their peak by a single digit to low double digit percentage. The strongest developer in the city grew its share and held its premium. The weakest end of the market is where the pain is.
That is a buyer’s market in the specific sense that matters. Not a collapse, a repricing. The buyers who do well out of a repricing are the ones who know which numbers to trust. Cresco Real Estate is a RERA registered brokerage with ORN 34288. Call 1-833-CRESCO-6 or email info@crescorealestate.ae and we will show you the registrations behind any community you are considering, not the brochure.
Dubai property market September 2026. Common questions
How many homes were sold in Dubai in September 2026?
10,108 home sales were registered with the Dubai Land Department in September 2026, worth AED 21.3 billion. That is 46.9 percent fewer transactions and 51.3 percent less value than September 2025.
Are Dubai property prices falling in 2026?
Yes, moderately. S&P Global cites industry reports putting the decline at 5 to 15 percent between the end of 2025 and September 2026. Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar has described the adjustment as 5 to 10 percent. S&P expects a gradual correction rather than a sharp fall.
Why did Dubai property sales drop in 2026?
Buyer activity became more cautious after the conflict in the region began in late February 2026. A second factor is that Dubai sale registrations lag the actual deal, so part of the year on year decline reflects record 2025 registrations clearing out of the comparison.
What was Emaar’s market share in September 2026?
Emaar reports an 18 percent share of Dubai sales value in September 2026, up from 13 percent in June. Checked against Dubai Land Department home sale figures, Emaar’s AED 4.1 billion is about 19 percent of the AED 21.3 billion total, which supports the claim.
Is off plan or ready property selling better in Dubai right now?
Off plan still accounts for most registrations, at 68.9 percent of September sales by count. But the momentum has shifted. Ready home value rose 40.3 percent from August to September while off plan value fell 19.8 percent.
What is the average price per square foot in Dubai in September 2026?
The median registered price was AED 1,639 per sq ft according to Dubai Land Department data analysed by Projectory. Emaar cites a Dubai average of AED 1,818 per sq ft and an Emaar average of AED 2,268. Averages run higher than medians because high value sales pull them up.
Is now a good time to buy property in Dubai?
Prices are lower than at the start of 2026 and there is more ready stock on the market with motivated sellers. Established developers are holding their premium while the thinner end of the market is being repriced harder. For a long term buyer focused on quality, the data supports buying selectively now. For an apartment buyer, S&P expects further softening, so waiting is defensible. Cresco Real Estate is a brokerage and not a financial adviser, and you should take independent advice on any purchase.