Nobody can tell you what a Dubai apartment will be worth in 2029. What you can know is how many units are scheduled to arrive each year, how many usually do, and what the rating agencies have said on the record. This is all of it in one place, year by year, with nothing added by us.
By Umer Shauket, Founder & CEO, Cresco Real Estate. RERA ORN 34288. Published 14 November 2026.
The short answer
- Supply peaks in 2028. Cavendish Maxwell counts 136,100 units in the pipeline for 2027 and 155,700 for 2028 (Construction Week). The past five years averaged 30,000 to 40,000 a year (Moody’s via The National).
- Not all of it arrives. In Q1 2026, 42.3% of scheduled units were delivered (Cavendish Maxwell).
- The agencies expect a gradual correction, not a crash. S&P said prices fell 5% to 15% between the end of 2025 and September 2026 and expects a gradual decline, with apartments falling more than villas (The National).
- No agency has published a price forecast for 2029. Anyone quoting one is giving you an opinion.
The supply schedule, year by year
| Year | Scheduled residential units | What is actually known |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | About 38,000 handed over January to September; 24,400 more scheduled for the rest of the year | 7,300 to 12,200 of those 24,400 are expected to complete (Khaleej Times on Cavendish Maxwell) |
| 2027 | 136,100 | Cavendish Maxwell pipeline, November 2026 (Construction Week) |
| 2028 | 155,700 | Villa and townhouse deliveries expected to double the 2027 figure (same source) |
| 2029 | No year figure published | ValuStrat counts more than 220,000 units under construction, with deliveries running through 2029 (ValuStrat, February 2026) |
Two things stand out. First, the peak has moved. An earlier Cavendish Maxwell outlook had 146,400 units for 2027 and 120,100 for 2028; the latest has 136,100 and 155,700 (Construction Week). The wave now lands in 2028. Second, the schedule is not the delivery. In Q1 2026 about 30,300 units were due and about 12,900 arrived (Cavendish Maxwell). We explain why that matters in the supply already under construction.
For scale, Moody’s put deliveries over the five years before 2026 at 30,000 to 40,000 units a year (The National). Even if only half of the 2028 schedule arrives, that is roughly double the old annual pace.
Who will live in them: the demand side
Dubai’s population reached 4.58 million at the end of 2025, after 7.5% growth that year (Khaleej Times). It fell by about 61,000 in March 2026 at the height of the regional war, then recovered to 4.74 million by the end of June (The National). The Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment counted 4,807,185 residents in late September (Gulf News). The Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan targets 5.8 million residents by 2040 (Khaleej Times).
So demand is growing. The open question is whether it grows as fast as the 2027 and 2028 schedules. We have not found a published estimate we can verify, so we do not give one.
What the rating agencies and the market have said
| Who | When | What they said |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Ratings | October 2026 | Prices fell 5% to 15% from the end of 2025 to September; expects a gradual correction, apartments down more than villas (The National). Expects residential units to rise about 20% over two years, mainly apartments (Khaleej Times) |
| S&P Global Ratings | March 2026 | Expects lower presales and more secondary supply from foreign investors holding units near completion; does not expect a 2008 style collapse in its base case (Gulf Business) |
| Moody’s | February 2026 | Expects a modest cooling in prices and developer sales over 12 to 18 months; modest outright declines probable for apartments; about 180,000 units due 2026 to 2028 (The National) |
| Fitch Ratings | March 2026 | Developers to prioritise cash, launch fewer projects; average selling prices could soften; substantially presold projects should proceed (Construction Week) |
| Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar | October 2026 | Cited an adjustment of 5% to 10% in the sector because of the war (The National) |
The agencies agree on two things: apartments are more exposed than villas, and the supply wave is the main pressure. On the downside they differ in tone. S&P does not expect a 2008 style collapse in its base case; Moody’s called rated developers well positioned to absorb a moderate slowdown; Fitch said presales and escrow funds should help stabilise developers’ cash flow. S&P added one condition in March: if hostilities ran well beyond its base case, a meaningful correction would become realistic (Gulf Business). Our S&P report summary and six indicators go deeper.
What 2026 to 2029 means for off plan
- Buying for handover in 2027 or 2028: expect more competing listings for rent and resale in the same months. Plan to hold, not flip.
- Buying now: fewer launches and slower sales give you more room to negotiate on price and payment terms, as Fitch and Moody’s both expect fewer launches.
- The resale market before handover is thinner: off plan sales fell 45.7% year on year in Q3 2026 (Reuters on ValuStrat). Read the ten checks before you commit.
What 2026 to 2029 means for ready
- Rents: 21.4% of rental contracts in Q3 2026 were renewed or signed below the previous rent, up from 4.8% in Q1 (Khaleej Times on Cavendish Maxwell). Supply is already reaching tenants.
- Prices: new completions become ready stock. S&P expects more secondary supply from foreign investors holding units near completion (Gulf Business), so buildings that hand over in the same year are where sellers will compete hardest.
- Buying now: you can see the unit, the rent and the service charge before you pay. Our October market report shows where ready sales are strongest.
What this means for a buyer
The next four years are a supply story first. That favours buyers who negotiate, hold for the long term, and choose villas or apartments in buildings without a big handover in the same year. It does not favour short term flips on new apartments due in 2028. Use the schedule, not a forecast, to decide when your purchase meets the market.
The honest limits
Every number here is a third party schedule, estimate or statement, reported as published; we have not restated it. Supply schedules change every quarter and different firms count differently, so their totals do not match. The population target is a plan, not a projection. No firm quoted here has published a 2029 price forecast. This is general information, not investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
Will Dubai property prices fall in 2027?
No agency has given a 2027 price figure. S&P expects a gradual correction with apartments falling more than villas (The National), and Moody’s expected modest declines for apartments over 12 to 18 months from February 2026 (The National).
How many new units will Dubai deliver in 2027 and 2028?
Cavendish Maxwell counts 136,100 units in the pipeline for 2027 and 155,700 for 2028 (Construction Week). Historically only part of a schedule arrives on time; in Q1 2026 it was 42.3% (Cavendish Maxwell).
Is off plan or ready better for the next four years?
It depends on when your unit meets the market. Off plan units handing over in 2028 meet the largest scheduled supply; ready units can be bought now with a known rent. Long term holders who negotiate are best placed in either.
Will Dubai property crash?
S&P does not expect a 2008 style collapse in its base case, and Moody’s and Fitch describe a moderate slowdown. S&P said a meaningful correction becomes realistic if regional hostilities run well beyond its assumptions (Gulf Business).
Related: off plan vs ready in 2026, the correction has started, is it safe to invest now.
Sources: Construction Week on Cavendish Maxwell, 2 November 2026; Cavendish Maxwell, Q1 2026; Khaleej Times on Cavendish Maxwell, 2 November 2026; ValuStrat, February 2026; The National, 7 October 2026; Khaleej Times on S&P, 7 October 2026; Gulf Business on S&P, 17 March 2026; The National on Moody’s, 10 February 2026; Construction Week on Fitch, 12 March 2026; Khaleej Times, 30 July 2026; The National, 4 August 2026; Gulf News, 29 September 2026; Khaleej Times on the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan; Reuters on ValuStrat Q3 2026. Figures are as published by each source on the dates shown.