Ask a developer about off plan and you will hear one story. Ask a rating agency and you will hear another. The register tells a third. Here is what each of them is saying in November 2026, side by side, so you can see where they agree and where they do not.
By Umer Shauket, Founder & CEO, Cresco Real Estate. RERA ORN 34288. Published 14 November 2026.
The short answer
- Off plan still dominates, but it is shrinking. It made up 72% of purchases and 65% of value in Q3 2026 (The National on Cavendish Maxwell), yet off plan sales fell 45.7% year on year (Reuters on ValuStrat).
- Rating agencies expect a slower 2027. Fitch and Moody’s expect fewer launches; S&P expects lower presales.
- Developers are offering more. Several advertised 4% DLD fee waivers and longer payment plans on selected projects in August 2026 (Betterhomes).
- The register still prices off plan higher. A median 36.8% above ready per sq ft in 48 like for like comparisons (DLD).
Who is saying what
| Voice | What they are saying about off plan | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Consultancy, on DLD data | Off plan was 72% of purchases and 65% of sales value in Q3 2026; Q3 value across all sales was AED 72.6 billion, down 47% year on year | The National on Cavendish Maxwell |
| Valuation firm | 24,375 off plan sales in Q3 2026, down 10.1% on Q2 and 45.7% on a year earlier; a fourth straight quarterly fall | Reuters on ValuStrat |
| S&P Global Ratings | Expects lower presales for new projects; notes that off plan buyers typically pay 20% to 25% in the first year and up to 70% against construction milestones | Gulf Business, March 2026 |
| Fitch Ratings | Developers will conserve cash and launch fewer projects; projects substantially presold should proceed | Construction Week, March 2026 |
| Moody’s | Developers will scale back new launches; rated developers well positioned for a moderate slowdown | The National, February 2026 |
| Developers | Emaar’s founder cited a 5% to 10% sector adjustment; several developers brought back DLD fee waivers and longer plans | The National; Betterhomes |
| Lenders | Of 5,424 residential mortgage registrations from 31 August to 12 October 2026, 108 were on off plan units | DLD register |
Where they agree
Everyone agrees off plan is slowing. The register, ValuStrat and all three rating agencies point the same way. Cavendish Maxwell linked it to buyer caution after the regional conflict began in late February, fewer project launches, and a backlog of earlier sales registrations clearing (The National).
Where they disagree
On how far it goes. Developers talk about an adjustment of 5% to 10%. S&P measured falls of 5% to 15% in prices from the end of 2025 to September and still calls it a gradual correction (The National). On what it means for buyers, developers point to waivers and flexible plans; the agencies point to apartments, where they expect prices to fall more than villas.
What the incentives tell you
A developer that pays your 4% Land Department fee or stretches the plan is competing for fewer buyers. That is useful to you. It is also a sign that the price on the brochure has room in it. The incentives named in August 2026 ranged from DLD waivers to cash discounts and 40/60 or 60/40 plans on selected projects (Betterhomes). Compare the price per sq ft after the incentive with registered sales in the same area before you count it as a saving. Our sold prices guide shows how.
What the register says that the brochures do not
Off plan apartments still registered a median 36.8% above ready ones per sq ft in 48 matched comparisons, and 40% or more above in 22 (DLD). And very few off plan buyers borrow: the same window had 108 mortgage registrations on off plan units against more than 8,400 off plan apartment sales. In our view that is why a slowdown shows in launches and resales before it shows in forced sales.
What this means for a buyer
This is a better market to buy off plan than to sell it. If you are buying, use the slower launch market to negotiate, and check the developer’s delivery record and the escrow account first; the ten checks list them. If you already own off plan and need to sell before handover, expect fewer buyers and price against the developer’s own incentives. Read off plan sellers trying to get out.
The honest limits
Figures are as published by each source on the dates shown and are not restated by us. Different firms count sales differently, so their totals differ. The incentive list comes from one brokerage’s August 2026 summary and changes by project and month. The 36.8% premium is a median from a six week window of the DLD register. This is general information, not investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
What is the market saying about off plan property in Dubai?
That it is slowing. Off plan sales fell 45.7% year on year in Q3 2026 (Reuters on ValuStrat), while still making up 72% of purchases (The National). Fitch and Moody’s expect fewer launches, and S&P expects lower presales.
Are Dubai developers offering discounts on off plan?
Several advertised 4% DLD fee waivers, cash discounts and longer payment plans on selected projects in August 2026 (Betterhomes). Terms vary by project and launch.
Is off plan still more expensive than ready in Dubai?
Yes on registered data: a median 36.8% more per sq ft in 48 like for like comparisons between 31 August and 12 October 2026 (Dubai Land Department).
Is now a good time to buy off plan in Dubai?
It is a better time to negotiate than a year ago, because launches and sales have slowed. Whether it is good for you depends on your exit plan, your handover funding and the developer’s record.
Related: why brokers push off plan, the 2026 launch cohort, off plan vs ready.
Sources: The National on Cavendish Maxwell and S&P, 7 October 2026; Reuters on ValuStrat Q3 2026; Gulf Business on S&P, 17 March 2026; Construction Week on Fitch, 12 March 2026; The National on Moody’s, 10 February 2026; Betterhomes, developer incentives, 11 August 2026; Dubai Land Department open data, export dated 12 October 2026. Figures are as published by each source on the dates shown.